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Overview

The Season Predictor simulates a complete 24-race Formula 1 season with realistic driver performance, team dynamics, circuit-specific advantages, and championship points calculations.

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Core Function

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predict_full_season()

Simulates the entire 2026 F1 season with 24 races and calculates final championship standings. 
from season_2026_calendar import predict_full_season

season_results = predict_full_season()
No parameters required - uses internal randomness with controlled variance for realistic results.

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Response Structure

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champion
object
Championship winner details
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standings
array
Complete championship standings (all 10 drivers)
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race_results
array
Results for all 24 races

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Example Response

{
  "champion": {
    "code": "VER",
    "name": "Max Verstappen",
    "team": "Red Bull",
    "points": 412,
    "wins": 14,
    "podiums": 19,
    "dnfs": 1
  },
  "standings": [
    {
      "code": "VER",
      "name": "Max Verstappen",
      "team": "Red Bull",
      "points": 412,
      "wins": 14,
      "podiums": 19,
      "dnfs": 1
    },
    {
      "code": "NOR",
      "name": "Lando Norris",
      "team": "McLaren",
      "points": 368,
      "wins": 6,
      "podiums": 16,
      "dnfs": 0
    },
    {
      "code": "LEC",
      "name": "Charles Leclerc",
      "team": "Ferrari",
      "points": 351,
      "wins": 3,
      "podiums": 15,
      "dnfs": 2
    }
  ],
  "race_results": [
    {
      "round": 1,
      "race": "Bahrain Grand Prix",
      "weather": "DRY",
      "winner": "Max Verstappen",
      "winner_team": "Red Bull",
      "p2": "Lando Norris",
      "p3": "Charles Leclerc",
      "dnfs": 0
    }
  ]
}

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2026 Season Calendar

24 races across 9 months with circuit type classifications: 
SEASON_2026 = [
    {'round': 1,  'race': 'Bahrain Grand Prix',          'circuit': 'DESERT',    'country': 'Bahrain'},
    {'round': 2,  'race': 'Saudi Arabian Grand Prix',    'circuit': 'STREET',    'country': 'Saudi Arabia'},
    {'round': 3,  'race': 'Australian Grand Prix',       'circuit': 'STREET',    'country': 'Australia'},
    {'round': 4,  'race': 'Japanese Grand Prix',         'circuit': 'TECHNICAL', 'country': 'Japan'},
    {'round': 5,  'race': 'Chinese Grand Prix',          'circuit': 'STANDARD',  'country': 'China'},
    {'round': 6,  'race': 'Miami Grand Prix',            'circuit': 'STREET',    'country': 'USA'},
    {'round': 7,  'race': 'Emilia Romagna Grand Prix',   'circuit': 'TECHNICAL', 'country': 'Italy'},
    {'round': 8,  'race': 'Monaco Grand Prix',           'circuit': 'STREET',    'country': 'Monaco'},
    {'round': 9,  'race': 'Spanish Grand Prix',          'circuit': 'TECHNICAL', 'country': 'Spain'},
    {'round': 10, 'race': 'Canadian Grand Prix',         'circuit': 'STANDARD',  'country': 'Canada'},
    {'round': 11, 'race': 'Austrian Grand Prix',         'circuit': 'FAST',      'country': 'Austria'},
    {'round': 12, 'race': 'British Grand Prix',          'circuit': 'FAST',      'country': 'UK'},
    {'round': 13, 'race': 'Hungarian Grand Prix',        'circuit': 'TECHNICAL', 'country': 'Hungary'},
    {'round': 14, 'race': 'Belgian Grand Prix',          'circuit': 'FAST',      'country': 'Belgium'},
    {'round': 15, 'race': 'Dutch Grand Prix',            'circuit': 'TECHNICAL', 'country': 'Netherlands'},
    {'round': 16, 'race': 'Italian Grand Prix',          'circuit': 'FAST',      'country': 'Italy'},
    {'round': 17, 'race': 'Azerbaijan Grand Prix',       'circuit': 'STREET',    'country': 'Azerbaijan'},
    {'round': 18, 'race': 'Singapore Grand Prix',        'circuit': 'STREET',    'country': 'Singapore'},
    {'round': 19, 'race': 'United States Grand Prix',    'circuit': 'STANDARD',  'country': 'USA'},
    {'round': 20, 'race': 'Mexico City Grand Prix',      'circuit': 'STANDARD',  'country': 'Mexico'},
    {'round': 21, 'race': 'São Paulo Grand Prix',        'circuit': 'STANDARD',  'country': 'Brazil'},
    {'round': 22, 'race': 'Las Vegas Grand Prix',        'circuit': 'STREET',    'country': 'USA'},
    {'round': 23, 'race': 'Qatar Grand Prix',            'circuit': 'DESERT',    'country': 'Qatar'},
    {'round': 24, 'race': 'Abu Dhabi Grand Prix',        'circuit': 'DESERT',    'country': 'UAE'}
]

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Driver Stats

Complete 2026 driver lineup with performance attributes: 
DRIVERS_2026 = {
    'VER': {
        'name': 'Max Verstappen',
        'team': 'Red Bull',
        'skill': 0.94,
        'wet_skill': 0.93,
        'street_skill': 0.86,
        'avg_pos': 1.8
    },
    'NOR': {
        'name': 'Lando Norris',
        'team': 'McLaren',
        'skill': 0.93,
        'wet_skill': 0.90,
        'street_skill': 0.89,
        'avg_pos': 3.0
    },
    'LEC': {
        'name': 'Charles Leclerc',
        'team': 'Ferrari',
        'skill': 0.93,
        'wet_skill': 0.88,
        'street_skill': 0.96,  # Street circuit specialist
        'avg_pos': 3.2
    },
    'HAM': {
        'name': 'Lewis Hamilton',
        'team': 'Ferrari',
        'skill': 0.92,
        'wet_skill': 0.97,  # Legendary in wet conditions
        'street_skill': 0.91,
        'avg_pos': 3.5
    },
    'PIA': {
        'name': 'Oscar Piastri',
        'team': 'McLaren',
        'skill': 0.90,
        'wet_skill': 0.86,
        'street_skill': 0.88,
        'avg_pos': 4.0
    },
    'RUS': {
        'name': 'George Russell',
        'team': 'Mercedes',
        'skill': 0.88,
        'wet_skill': 0.89,
        'street_skill': 0.86,
        'avg_pos': 4.2
    },
    'SAI': {
        'name': 'Carlos Sainz',
        'team': 'Williams',
        'skill': 0.87,
        'wet_skill': 0.86,
        'street_skill': 0.88,
        'avg_pos': 4.5
    },
    'ALO': {
        'name': 'Fernando Alonso',
        'team': 'Aston Martin',
        'skill': 0.86,
        'wet_skill': 0.92,
        'street_skill': 0.89,
        'avg_pos': 5.0
    },
    'PER': {
        'name': 'Sergio Perez',
        'team': 'Red Bull',
        'skill': 0.82,
        'wet_skill': 0.80,
        'street_skill': 0.85,
        'avg_pos': 5.5
    },
    'GAS': {
        'name': 'Pierre Gasly',
        'team': 'Alpine',
        'skill': 0.78,
        'wet_skill': 0.77,
        'street_skill': 0.80,
        'avg_pos': 8.0
    }
}

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Team Performance

Constructor car performance ratings: 
TEAM_PERFORMANCE_2026 = {
    'Red Bull':      0.94,
    'McLaren':       0.94,
    'Ferrari':       0.93,
    'Mercedes':      0.89,
    'Aston Martin':  0.83,
    'Williams':      0.80,
    'Alpine':        0.76
}

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Circuit Specialists

Drivers with specific circuit advantages: 
CIRCUIT_SPECIALIST = {
    'STREET': {
        'LEC': 0.05,  # Leclerc dominates street circuits
        'ALO': 0.04,
        'PER': 0.03,
        'SAI': 0.02
    },
    'FAST': {
        'VER': 0.04,
        'HAM': 0.03,
        'RUS': 0.02
    },
    'TECHNICAL': {
        'VER': 0.03,
        'LEC': 0.02,
        'HAM': 0.02
    },
    'DESERT': {
        'VER': 0.03,
        'NOR': 0.02
    },
    'STANDARD': {}  # No bonuses
}

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Points System

FIA Formula 1 points distribution: 
POINTS = [
    25,  # P1
    18,  # P2
    15,  # P3
    12,  # P4
    10,  # P5
    8,   # P6
    6,   # P7
    4,   # P8
    2,   # P9
    1,   # P10
    0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0  # P11-P20
]

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Simulation Logic

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Qualifying Simulation

def simulate_qualifying(race_info, weather):
    """
    Determines grid positions based on:
    - Driver skill (wet_skill if raining)
    - Team car performance
    - Circuit specialist bonuses
    - Random variation (±0.06)
    """
    for driver in DRIVERS_2026:
        skill = driver['skill']
        if weather != 'DRY':
            skill = (skill + driver['wet_skill']) / 2
        
        team_boost = TEAM_PERFORMANCE_2026[driver['team']]
        circuit_bonus = CIRCUIT_SPECIALIST[race_info['circuit']].get(code, 0)
        luck = np.random.normal(0, 0.06)
        
        quali_score = skill * team_boost + circuit_bonus + luck

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Race Simulation

def simulate_race(race_info, grid_positions, weather):
    """
    Simulates race result considering:
    - Starting grid position
    - Driver race skill
    - Weather conditions (60% weight on wet_skill in rain)
    - Team car performance
    - Circuit specialist bonuses
    - Grid position penalty (0.008 per position)
    - Race luck/strategy variance (±0.09)
    - DNF probability (5% per driver)
    """
    for driver in DRIVERS_2026:
        skill = driver['skill']
        if weather != 'DRY':
            skill = (skill * 0.4) + (driver['wet_skill'] * 0.6)
        
        grid_penalty = grid * 0.008
        race_luck = np.random.normal(0, 0.09)
        dnf = np.random.random() < 0.05

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Weather Distribution

Realistic weather probabilities: 
weather = np.random.choice(
    ['DRY', 'LIGHT_RAIN', 'HEAVY_RAIN'],
    p=[0.72, 0.20, 0.08]  # 72% dry, 20% light rain, 8% heavy rain
)

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Championship Forecasting

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Key Factors

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Driver Skill
float
Base performance level (0.78-0.94)
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Team Performance
float
Car competitiveness multiplier (0.76-0.94)
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Wet Weather Ability
float
Performance in rain (0.77-0.97)Hamilton has legendary 0.97 rating
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Circuit Specialization
float
Bonus on specific track types (0.02-0.05)Leclerc gets +0.05 on street circuits
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Grid Position Effect
float
Penalty for starting further back (0.008 per position)
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Race Variance
float
Strategy, luck, and incident randomness (σ=0.09)
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DNF Rate
float
Retirement probability (5% per driver per race)

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Usage Examples

from season_2026_calendar import predict_full_season

season = predict_full_season()

print(f"Champion: {season['champion']['name']}")
print(f"Points: {season['champion']['points']}")
print(f"Wins: {season['champion']['wins']}")

print("\nTop 5 Standings:")
for i, driver in enumerate(season['standings'][:5], 1):
    print(f"{i}. {driver['name']}: {driver['points']} pts")

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Real Driver Career Statistics

Historical performance data used for skill calibration:

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Top Drivers

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Output Files

Prediction saves to ./data/2026_prediction.json: 
{
  "champion": {...},
  "standings": [...],
  "race_results": [...]
}

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Performance Notes

  • Execution Time: ~2-3 seconds for full season
  • Randomness: Controlled variance for realistic unpredictability
  • Weather Impact: ~28% of races have precipitation
  • DNF Rate: Average 1-2 retirements per race
  • Typical Championship: Winner has 400-450 points with 12-16 wins

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