Prophet Agents - Gnosis Prediction Market Agent

Prophet agents use the Prediction Prophet framework to make research-backed predictions using state-of-the-art language models.

Model Variants

Prophet agents are available with multiple LLM backends:

OpenAI GPT

GPT-4o, GPT-4 Turbo, o1, o3-mini variants

Anthropic Claude

Claude 3 Opus, 3.5 Haiku, 3.5 Sonnet

Google Gemini

Gemini 2.0 Flash via OpenRouter

DeepSeek

DeepSeek R1, DeepSeek Chat

OLAS Embedding

Embedding-based similarity agent

Specialized

Categorical, scalar, new market variants

OpenAI Prophet Agents

GPT-4o Agent (Primary)

The flagship agent using GPT-4o with full Kelly betting strategy.

python prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py prophet_gpt4o omen

Configuration:

class DeployablePredictionProphetGPT4oAgent(DeployableTraderAgentER):
    bet_on_n_markets_per_run = 4
    
    def get_betting_strategy(self, market: AgentMarket) -> BettingStrategy:
        return FullBinaryKellyBettingStrategy(
            max_position_amount=get_maximum_possible_bet_amount(
                min_=USD(1), max_=USD(5), trading_balance=market.get_trade_balance(APIKeys())
            ),
            max_price_impact=0.7,
        )
    
    def load(self) -> None:
        model = "gpt-4o-2024-08-06"
        self.agent = PredictionProphetAgent(
            research_agent=Agent(OpenAIModel(model), model_settings=ModelSettings(temperature=0.7)),
            prediction_agent=Agent(OpenAIModel(model), model_settings=ModelSettings(temperature=0.0)),
            include_reasoning=True,
        )

Key Features:

4 markets per run
$1-$ 5 bet range
70% max price impact
Dual-agent architecture (research + prediction)
Research at temp 0.7, prediction at temp 0.0

GPT-4o Variants

GPT-4o Agent B - Cost optimized with fewer searches:

python prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py prophet_gpt4o_b omen

PredictionProphetAgent(
    subqueries_limit=3,  # Reduced from default 5
    min_scraped_sites=3,  # Reduced from default 5
)

GPT-4o Agent C - No take-profit strategy:

python prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py prophet_gpt4o_c omen

FullBinaryKellyBettingStrategy(
    take_profit=False,  # Hold positions until resolution
)

o1/o3 Series Agents

o1 Agent - Using OpenAI’s reasoning model:

python prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py prophet_o1 omen

class DeployablePredictionProphetGPTo1(DeployableTraderAgentER):
    def get_betting_strategy(self, market: AgentMarket) -> BettingStrategy:
        return FullBinaryKellyBettingStrategy(
            max_position_amount=get_maximum_possible_bet_amount(
                min_=USD(1), max_=USD(4), trading_balance=market.get_trade_balance(APIKeys())
            ),
            max_price_impact=0.418,
        )
    
    def load(self) -> None:
        model = "o1-2024-12-17"
        # o1 requires temperature=1.0
        self.agent = PredictionProphetAgent(
            research_agent=Agent(OpenAIModel(model), model_settings=ModelSettings(temperature=1.0)),
            prediction_agent=Agent(OpenAIModel(model), model_settings=ModelSettings(temperature=1.0)),
        )

Available o-series agents:

prophet_o1 - Full o1 model ( $1-$ 4, 41.8% price impact)
prophet_o1mini - Smaller o1 variant (now uses o4-mini)
prophet_o1preview - Preview version (now uses o3)
prophet_o3mini - Latest o3-mini ( $0.50-$ 1, max expected value strategy)

GPT-4 Turbo Agents

# GPT-4 Turbo Preview
python prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py prophet_gpt4 omen

# GPT-4 Turbo Final
python prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py prophet_gpt4_final omen

Using gpt-4-0125-preview and gpt-4-turbo-2024-04-09 respectively.

GPT-4o-mini Agent

python prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py prophet_gpt4omini omen

Cost-effective variant using gpt-4o-mini-2024-07-18. Currently uses conservative betting (not yet optimized for profitability).

Anthropic Claude Agents

Claude 3.5 Sonnet (Best Performing)

python prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py prophet_claude35_sonnet omen

class DeployablePredictionProphetClaude35SonnetAgent(DeployableTraderAgentER):
    def get_betting_strategy(self, market: AgentMarket) -> BettingStrategy:
        return FullBinaryKellyBettingStrategy(
            max_position_amount=get_maximum_possible_bet_amount(
                min_=USD(1), max_=USD(4.77), trading_balance=market.get_trade_balance(APIKeys())
            ),
            max_price_impact=0.63,
        )
    
    def load(self) -> None:
        model = "claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022"
        self.agent = PredictionProphetAgent(
            research_agent=Agent(
                AnthropicModel(model, provider=AnthropicProvider(api_key=api_keys.anthropic_api_key)),
                model_settings=ModelSettings(temperature=0.7),
            ),
            prediction_agent=Agent(
                AnthropicModel(model, provider=AnthropicProvider(api_key=api_keys.anthropic_api_key)),
                model_settings=ModelSettings(temperature=0.0),
            ),
        )

Other Claude Variants

# Claude 3 Opus
python prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py prophet_claude3_opus omen

# Claude 3.5 Haiku  
python prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py prophet_claude35_haiku omen

Google Gemini Agent

python prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py prophet_gemini20flash omen

class DeployablePredictionProphetGemini20Flash(DeployableTraderAgentProphetOpenRouter):
    bet_on_n_markets_per_run = 4
    model = "google/gemini-2.0-flash-001"
    
    def get_betting_strategy(self, market: AgentMarket) -> BettingStrategy:
        return FullCategoricalKellyBettingStrategy(
            max_position_amount=get_maximum_possible_bet_amount(
                min_=USD(1), max_=USD(5.95), trading_balance=market.get_trade_balance(APIKeys())
            ),
            max_price_impact=1.38,
        )

Uses OpenRouter for Gemini access.

DeepSeek Agents

DeepSeek Chat

python prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py prophet_deepseekchat omen

class DeployablePredictionProphetDeepSeekChat(DeployableTraderAgentProphetOpenRouter):
    model = "deepseek/deepseek-chat"
    
    def get_betting_strategy(self, market: AgentMarket) -> BettingStrategy:
        return FullBinaryKellyBettingStrategy(
            max_position_amount=get_maximum_possible_bet_amount(
                min_=USD(1), max_=USD(5), trading_balance=market.get_trade_balance(APIKeys())
            ),
            max_price_impact=0.7,
        )

DeepSeek R1 (Suspended)

python prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py prophet_deepseekr1 omen

Warning: This agent ran out of funds and is currently suspended.

class DeployablePredictionProphetDeepSeekR1(DeployableTraderAgentProphetOpenRouter):
    model = "deepseek/deepseek-r1"
    just_warn_on_unexpected_model_behavior = True
    
    def get_betting_strategy(self, market: AgentMarket) -> BettingStrategy:
        return CategoricalMaxAccuracyBettingStrategy(
            max_position_amount=get_maximum_possible_bet_amount(
                min_=USD(1), max_=USD(6.5), trading_balance=market.get_trade_balance(APIKeys())
            )
        )

OLAS Embedding Agent

python prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py olas_embedding_oa omen

class DeployableOlasEmbeddingOAAgent(DeployableTraderAgentER):
    agent: OlasAgent
    
    def get_betting_strategy(self, market: AgentMarket) -> BettingStrategy:
        return FullCategoricalKellyBettingStrategy(
            max_position_amount=get_maximum_possible_bet_amount(
                min_=USD(0.1), max_=USD(6), trading_balance=market.get_trade_balance(APIKeys())
            ),
            max_price_impact=0.733,
        )
    
    def load(self) -> None:
        self.agent = OlasAgent(
            research_agent=Agent(OpenAIModel(model)),
            prediction_agent=Agent(OpenAIModel(model)),
            embedding_model=EmbeddingModel.openai,
        )

Uses embeddings for finding similar historical markets and predictions.

Specialized Prophet Variants

Categorical Markets

python prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py prophet_gpt4o_categorical omen

class DeployablePredictionProphetGPT4oAgentCategorical(DeployableTraderAgentERCategorical):
    def answer_categorical_market(
        self, market: AgentMarket
    ) -> CategoricalProbabilisticAnswer | None:
        prediction = self.agent.predict_categorical(market.question, market.outcomes)
        return prediction.outcome_prediction
    
    def get_betting_strategy(self, market: AgentMarket) -> BettingStrategy:
        return FullCategoricalKellyBettingStrategy(
            max_position_amount=get_maximum_possible_bet_amount(
                min_=USD(0.01), max_=USD(0.75), trading_balance=market.get_trade_balance(APIKeys())
            ),
            max_price_impact=0.068,
            allow_multiple_bets=False,
            allow_shorting=False,
        )

Scalar Markets

python prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py prophet_gpt4o_scalar omen

class DeployablePredictionProphetGPT4oAgentScalar(DeployableTraderAgentERScalar):
    def answer_scalar_market(
        self, market: AgentMarket
    ) -> ScalarProbabilisticAnswer | None:
        prediction = self.agent.predict_scalar(
            market.question, market.upper_bound, market.lower_bound
        )
        return prediction.outcome_prediction

New Market Trader

python prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py prophet_gpt4o_new_market_trader omen

class DeployablePredictionProphetGPT4oAgentNewMarketTrader(
    DeployablePredictionProphetGPT4oAgent
):
    trade_on_markets_created_after = DatetimeUTC(2024, 10, 31, 0)
    get_markets_sort_by = SortBy.NEWEST
    same_market_trade_interval = MarketLifetimeProportionalInterval(max_trades=4)
    
    def verify_market(self, market_type: MarketType, market: AgentMarket) -> bool:
        # Check if there's relevant news since last trade
        last_trade_datetime = market.get_most_recent_trade_datetime(user_id=user_id)
        if last_trade_datetime is None:
            return True
        
        news = get_certified_relevant_news_since_cached(
            question=market.question,
            days_ago=(utcnow() - last_trade_datetime).days,
            cache=self.relevant_news_response_cache,
        )
        return news is not None

Trades on new markets and re-evaluates when relevant news is published.

Prophet Agent Architecture

Dual Agent System

All Prophet agents use two separate LLM instances:

PredictionProphetAgent(
    research_agent=Agent(..., temperature=0.7),  # Creative research
    prediction_agent=Agent(..., temperature=0.0),  # Deterministic prediction
)

Research Process

Subquery Generation: Break question into searchable components
Web Search: Use Tavily to find relevant sources
Content Scraping: Extract information from top results
Evidence Synthesis: Combine findings into coherent analysis
Probability Estimation: Generate final prediction with reasoning

Configuration Parameters

PredictionProphetAgent(
    subqueries_limit=5,  # Number of search queries
    min_scraped_sites=5,  # Minimum sites to scrape
    include_reasoning=True,  # Include explanation
    logger=logger,  # Custom logger
)

Performance Comparison

Model	Bet Range	Max Price Impact	Status	Notes
GPT-4o	$1-$ 5	70%	Active	Best balanced
GPT-4o-mini	Tiny	-	Testing	Not profitable yet
o1	$1-$ 4	41.8%	Active	Advanced reasoning
o3-mini	$0.50-$ 1	-	Active	Max EV strategy
Claude 3.5 Sonnet	$1-$ 4.77	63%	Active	High performance
Claude 3.5 Haiku	Tiny	-	Testing	Not profitable yet
Gemini 2.0 Flash	$1-$ 5.95	138%	Active	Categorical focus
DeepSeek Chat	$1-$ 5	70%	Active	Cost-effective
DeepSeek R1	$1-$ 6.50	-	Suspended	Out of funds

Best Practices

Model Selection

# Production: GPT-4o or Claude 3.5 Sonnet
agent = DeployablePredictionProphetGPT4oAgent(enable_langfuse=True)

# Cost-sensitive: DeepSeek Chat or GPT-4o-mini
agent = DeployablePredictionProphetDeepSeekChat()

# Advanced reasoning: o1 or o3-mini
agent = DeployablePredictionProphetGPTo1()

API Keys

# OpenAI agents
OPENAI_API_KEY=sk-...

# Claude agents  
ANTHROPIC_API_KEY=sk-ant-...

# OpenRouter agents (Gemini, DeepSeek)
OPENROUTER_API_KEY=sk-or-...

# Research APIs
TAVILY_API_KEY=tvly-...

Cost Optimization

# Reduce API costs
PredictionProphetAgent(
    subqueries_limit=3,  # Fewer searches
    min_scraped_sites=3,  # Fewer sites
)

# Or use cheaper models
DeployablePredictionProphetGPT4ominiAgent()  # ~90% cheaper than GPT-4o
DeployablePredictionProphetDeepSeekChat()  # Even cheaper via OpenRouter

Get Started

Core Concepts

Guides

Agent Gallery

Tools & Utilities

​Model Variants

OpenAI GPT

Anthropic Claude

Google Gemini

DeepSeek

OLAS Embedding

Specialized

​OpenAI Prophet Agents

​GPT-4o Agent (Primary)

​GPT-4o Variants

​o1/o3 Series Agents

​GPT-4 Turbo Agents

​GPT-4o-mini Agent

​Anthropic Claude Agents

​Claude 3.5 Sonnet (Best Performing)

​Other Claude Variants

​Google Gemini Agent

​DeepSeek Agents

​DeepSeek Chat

​DeepSeek R1 (Suspended)

​OLAS Embedding Agent

​Specialized Prophet Variants

​Categorical Markets

​Scalar Markets

​New Market Trader

​Prophet Agent Architecture

​Dual Agent System

​Research Process

​Configuration Parameters

​Performance Comparison

​Best Practices

​Model Selection

​API Keys

​Cost Optimization

​Next Steps

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