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Overview

The Prediction Service provides APIs for prediction market data from Polymarket. Access real-time probability estimates for geopolitical events, economic indicators, and other world events based on decentralized prediction markets. Base Path: /api/prediction/v1

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ListPredictionMarkets

Retrieves active prediction markets from Polymarket. Endpoint: GET /api/prediction/v1/list-prediction-markets

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Request Parameters

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page_size
integer
Maximum items per page (1-100).
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cursor
string
Cursor for next page.
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category
string
Optional category filter (e.g., “Politics”, “Crypto”, “Sports”).
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query
string
Optional search query for market titles.

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Response

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markets
array
The list of prediction markets.
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pagination
object
Pagination metadata with cursor for next page.

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Example Request

curl -X GET "https://api.worldmonitor.com/api/prediction/v1/list-prediction-markets?category=Politics&page_size=10"

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Example Response

{
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "2024-us-election",
      "title": "Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?",
      "yes_price": 0.52,
      "volume": 18500000,
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/2024-us-election",
      "closes_at": 1730851200000,
      "category": "Politics"
    },
    {
      "id": "ukraine-ceasefire-2024",
      "title": "Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine by end of 2024?",
      "yes_price": 0.38,
      "volume": 4200000,
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-ceasefire-2024",
      "closes_at": 1735689599000,
      "category": "Politics"
    },
    {
      "id": "fed-rate-march-2024",
      "title": "Will the Fed cut rates in March 2024?",
      "yes_price": 0.15,
      "volume": 2800000,
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-march-2024",
      "closes_at": 1711929599000,
      "category": "Politics"
    }
  ],
  "pagination": {
    "cursor": "eyJvZmZzZXQiOjEwfQ==",
    "has_more": true
  }
}

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Understanding Prediction Markets

Prediction markets aggregate opinions from traders who put money on the line, providing probability estimates for future events. The “yes_price” represents the current market-implied probability of the event occurring.

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How to Read Probabilities

High Confidence

0.70 - 1.00Market strongly expects the event to occur.

Uncertain

0.30 - 0.70Market is uncertain, probability could swing either way.

Low Confidence

0.00 - 0.30Market strongly expects the event will not occur.

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Market Categories

Polymarket offers prediction markets across various categories:
Elections, policy decisions, geopolitical events, and political appointments.Examples:
  • Presidential elections
  • Congressional outcomes
  • International treaties
  • Political scandals
Cryptocurrency prices, blockchain events, and regulatory decisions.Examples:
  • Bitcoin price targets
  • Ethereum upgrades
  • Crypto regulation
  • Exchange events
Major sporting events, championships, and individual achievements.Examples:
  • Super Bowl winners
  • World Cup outcomes
  • MVP awards
  • Record-breaking performances
Entertainment industry events, awards, and celebrity predictions.Examples:
  • Oscar winners
  • Box office records
  • Celebrity relationships
  • TV show renewals
Technological breakthroughs, scientific discoveries, and innovation milestones.Examples:
  • AI capabilities
  • Space exploration
  • Medical breakthroughs
  • Product launches

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Use Cases

Risk Assessment

Use market-implied probabilities to assess geopolitical and economic risks for investment decisions.

Sentiment Analysis

Track how market sentiment changes over time as new information emerges.

Event Forecasting

Aggregate wisdom of crowds for more accurate event forecasting than traditional polls.

Research & Analysis

Compare prediction market probabilities with expert forecasts and historical outcomes.

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Data Source

Prediction market data is sourced from:
  • Polymarket: The world’s largest prediction market platform
  • Real-time updates: Prices reflect current trading activity
  • Volume data: Track market liquidity and participant confidence
  • Decentralized: Markets operate on blockchain infrastructure
Prediction markets reflect collective trader opinions and should be used as one of many inputs for decision-making. They are not guarantees of future outcomes.

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