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Decision Shield translates market climates into operator-safe verdicts for roadmap and organizational decisions. It produces plain-English guidance tied to live sensor readings, helping you time capital-intensive moves and avoid regime-blind mistakes.

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Decision Validation Workflow

1

Identify your lifecycle stage

Choose the stage that best matches your company’s current maturity:
  • DISCOVERY: Pre-PMF, validating hypotheses, fewer than 20 customers
  • GROWTH: PMF confirmed, scaling GTM, rapid revenue growth
  • SCALE: Established market position, expanding to new segments or geographies
  • MATURE: Market leader, optimizing margins, defending position
Why it matters: Lifecycle adjusts risk tolerance. Capital-intensive moves are flagged as riskier for DISCOVERY teams.
2

Select decision category

Categorize the decision domain:
CategoryExamples
HIRINGHeadcount planning, team expansion, acqui-hires
ROADMAPProduct rewrites, platform investments, new verticals
PRICINGDiscount campaigns, pricing model changes
INFRASTRUCTURECloud migrations, data platform builds
M_AND_AAcquisitions, divestitures
GEOGRAPHIC_EXPANSIONOpening new regions, international hiring
RESTRUCTURINGLayoffs, org redesigns, spin-offs
3

Choose the specific action

Select the decision you’re evaluating:
  • HIRE: Add full-time headcount
  • REWRITE: Platform or codebase rewrite
  • LAUNCH: Ship new product or feature line
  • DISCOUNT: Offer pricing discounts or promotions
  • EXPAND: Geographic or vertical market expansion
  • ACQUIRE: M&A acquisition
  • DIVEST: Sell or spin off business unit
  • INFRA_SPEND: Large infrastructure investment
  • REGIONAL_EXPANSION: Open office or hire in new region
  • RESTRUCTURE: Org restructuring or headcount reduction
4

Call the Decision Shield API

import { evaluateDecision } from "@/lib/decisionShield";
import { evaluateRegime } from "@/lib/regimeEngine";

// Get current regime
const assessment = evaluateRegime(treasuryData, thresholds, macroSeries);

// Evaluate decision
const decision = evaluateDecision(assessment, {
  lifecycle: "GROWTH",
  category: "HIRING",
  action: "HIRE",
  context: "Engineering team expansion: +10 engineers"
});

console.log(decision);
Response structure:
{
  "verdict": "RISKY",
  "summary": "Execution call: Hire full-time headcount is risky for a growth team in defensive conditions, based on current signals.",
  "bullets": [
    "Base rate: 5.25% is above 5%, so capital is expensive.",
    "Curve slope: inverted (-0.45%), signaling caution.",
    "Tightness 78 vs risk appetite 52 keeps conditions in defensive."
  ],
  "guardrail": "Hire only for revenue-critical roles with 12-month payback windows.",
  "reversalTrigger": "Revisit when tightness drops below 70 or risk appetite falls to or below 50 for 30 consecutive days (current: 78/52)."
}
5

Interpret the verdict and act

Use the verdict to guide execution timing:
  • SAFE: Proceed with confidence. Regime supports this decision.
  • RISKY: Proceed with guardrails. Apply additional constraints or defer if possible.
  • DANGEROUS: Defer unless existential. Consider reversible alternatives.
Review the guardrail for decision-specific constraints and the reversalTrigger to schedule a follow-up review.

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Understanding Verdicts

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SAFE

Meaning: The current regime supports this decision. Market conditions are aligned with the action’s risk profile. Guidance:
  • Execute with standard diligence
  • No additional regime-based constraints needed
  • Monitor reversal trigger for future planning
Example: Launching a new product in EXPANSION conditions is SAFE—capital is cheap and buyers are confident.

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RISKY

Meaning: The decision is misaligned with current conditions but may be necessary. Regime introduces elevated risk. Guidance:
  • Apply the guardrail constraint before proceeding
  • Shorten payback windows or scope
  • Prepare contingency plans (e.g., pause clauses in vendor contracts)
  • Review weekly until reversal trigger confirms stability
Example: Hiring in DEFENSIVE conditions is RISKY—capital is expensive, so limit hires to revenue-critical roles.
RISKY verdicts require discipline. Ignoring guardrails during misaligned regimes amplifies downside exposure.

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DANGEROUS

Meaning: The decision is strongly misaligned with regime conditions. Execution carries significant downside risk. Guidance:
  • Defer unless existential: Only proceed if inaction causes greater harm
  • Explore reversible alternatives (e.g., contract hiring instead of FTE expansion)
  • Escalate to leadership with explicit regime context
  • If you must proceed, apply tightest possible scope and guardrails
Example: Large infrastructure spend in SCARCITY is DANGEROUS—capital is expensive and risk appetite is low. Defer until EXPANSION.
Dangerous ≠ impossible. If the decision is existential (e.g., compliance requirement, customer retention), proceed with extreme caution and tight guardrails.

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Decision Guardrails

Guardrails are action-specific constraints that reduce risk when verdicts are RISKY or DANGEROUS. They apply regardless of lifecycle stage.

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Example Guardrails

ActionGuardrail
HIREHire only for revenue-critical roles with 12-month payback windows.
REWRITERewrite only if technical debt blocks revenue or causes customer churn.
LAUNCHLaunch only features with strong customer pull; defer speculative experiments.
DISCOUNTDiscount only to close pipeline or defend renewals; avoid volume-building discounts.
EXPANDExpand only to geographies with confirmed demand and local distribution.
ACQUIREAcquire only for strategic fill (e.g., talent, tech); avoid market share plays.
DIVESTDivest non-core assets only if cash preservation is critical.
INFRA_SPENDSpend only to remove scale blockers or compliance gaps.
REGIONAL_EXPANSIONExpand only to regions with existing customer clusters.
RESTRUCTURERestructure only to reduce burn or realign to core revenue drivers.
Guardrails are sourced from decisionShieldConfig.ts and reviewed quarterly based on operator feedback.

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Reversal Triggers

Reversal triggers tell you when to revisit the decision. Regimes must stay shifted for 30 consecutive days to confirm a reversal.

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Example Reversal Trigger

Current regime: DEFENSIVE (tightness: 78, risk appetite: 52) Trigger:
“Revisit when tightness drops below 70 or risk appetite falls to or below 50 for 30 consecutive days (current: 78/52).”
Interpretation:
  • If tightness falls to 68 and stays there for 30 days → regime shifts to EXPANSION or VOLATILE
  • If risk appetite falls to 48 and stays there for 30 days → regime shifts to SCARCITY
Action: Set a calendar reminder 30 days out to re-evaluate the decision with updated regime data.

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Lifecycle-Based Adjustments

Decision Shield applies contextual adjustments based on lifecycle stage:

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DISCOVERY Stage

Capital-intensive actions (HIRE, REWRITE, INFRA_SPEND, EXPAND, ACQUIRE, REGIONAL_EXPANSION) receive a one-level verdict increase (e.g., SAFE → RISKY). Why: Early-stage teams have limited runway and unproven revenue models. Regime misalignment compounds risk. Example:
  • Base verdict: HIRE in EXPANSION is SAFE
  • Adjusted for DISCOVERY: HIRE becomes RISKY
  • Guardrail: Hire only for product-market fit validation roles (e.g., founding engineers, design).

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MATURE Stage

Restructuring actions (DIVEST, RESTRUCTURE) receive a one-level verdict decrease (e.g., RISKY → SAFE). Why: Mature companies have operational leverage and can execute cost optimization cleanly even in challenging regimes. Example:
  • Base verdict: DIVEST in SCARCITY is RISKY
  • Adjusted for MATURE: DIVEST becomes SAFE
  • Guardrail: Divest non-core assets to preserve cash and focus on defensible revenue.

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Contextual Decision Inputs

The optional context field allows you to attach decision-specific notes for logging and audit trails: 
const decision = evaluateDecision(assessment, {
  lifecycle: "GROWTH",
  category: "INFRASTRUCTURE",
  action: "INFRA_SPEND",
  context: "Migrate to Kubernetes: $500K spend, 18-month ROI"
});
Context does not affect verdict logic but is included in decision logs and exported briefs. Use it to document:
  • Cost and timeline estimates
  • Expected ROI or payback period
  • Strategic rationale
  • Stakeholder alignment notes

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Sensor Bullets Explained

Each decision output includes sensor bullets that explain the regime scoring mechanics: Example: 
"bullets": [
  "Base rate: 5.25% is above 5%, so capital is expensive.",
  "Curve slope: inverted (-0.45%), signaling caution.",
  "Tightness 78 vs risk appetite 52 keeps conditions in defensive."
]
Interpretation:
  1. Base rate bullet: Tells you if borrowing costs are high (>5%) or moderate (≤5%)
  2. Curve slope bullet: Confirms inversion (negative slope) or steepness (positive slope)
  3. Tightness/risk appetite summary: Maps scores to the current regime

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Integrating with Planning Cycles

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Quarterly Planning

  1. Pre-planning (T-2 weeks): Run Decision Shield on all major roadmap initiatives
  2. Planning (T-1 week): Filter out DANGEROUS verdicts; apply guardrails to RISKY items
  3. Post-planning (T+1 week): Export decisions and set reversal trigger reminders

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Weekly Stand-ups

  • Surface any decisions in transition watch (regime confidence LOW)
  • Re-evaluate decisions from 30 days ago if reversal trigger conditions met
  • Flag new macro adjustments (e.g., VIX spike, VC funding slowdown)

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Next Steps

Understanding Regimes

Learn how tightness and risk appetite scores are calculated

Alerts and Notifications

Set up regime-change alerts to catch transitions early

Exporting Briefs

Share Decision Shield outputs with leadership and stakeholders

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