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World Monitor aggregates real-time signals from multiple data sources to build a unified geospatial intelligence picture. Signals represent events that may indicate instability, military activity, or infrastructure disruption.

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Signal Types

World Monitor tracks 10+ signal types across geopolitical, military, and infrastructure domains:

Protests

Data sources: ACLED + GDELTSocial unrest events with fatality counts, event types (demonstration, riot, violence), and Haversine-based deduplication.Severity factors:
  • Fatalities
  • Violence level
  • Internet outages during protests

Conflicts

Data sources: UCDP + ACLEDActive conflict zones with battle death counts and escalation tracking.Severity factors:
  • Battle deaths (1,000+ = active war)
  • Civilian casualties
  • Multi-actor involvement

Military Flights

Data source: ADS-B transpondersDetected aircraft enriched via Wingbits API with registration, manufacturer, model, and operator.Confidence levels:
  • Confirmed: Operator matches military branch
  • Likely: Aircraft type is military-exclusive (tanker, AWACS)
  • Possible: Gov’t-registered in military area

Naval Vessels

Data sources: AIS tracking + USNI fleet reportsMaritime activity with vessel type classification, strike group assignments, and chokepoint monitoring.Notable features:
  • Dark ship detection (AIS gaps)
  • Carrier strike group tracking
  • 8 strategic chokepoint monitors

Internet Outages

Data source: Cloudflare RadarAS-level outage detection with severity scoring.CII impact: Outages during protests increase unrest score by 20%

Earthquakes

Data source: USGSMagnitude 4.5+ earthquakes with population exposure estimation (WorldPop density data).Severity factors:
  • Magnitude
  • Depth
  • Population within 100km

GPS/GNSS Jamming

Data source: gpsjam.org (ADS-B analysis)H3 hex cells where aircraft report GPS anomalies.Classification:
  • Medium (amber): >2% interference
  • High (red): >10% interference
CII impact: Up to +35 security score

Satellite Fires

Data source: NASA FIRMS (VIIRS)Thermal hotspots indicating wildfires, industrial activity, or conflict-related burns.Filtering: Only high-confidence detections (>70%) are shown

Displacement Flows

Data source: UNHCR + HAPIRefugee and IDP movements with origin/destination tracking.Dual perspective:
  • Origin countries: CII boost for instability
  • Host countries: Infrastructure stress indicator

Climate Anomalies

Data source: ERA5 reanalysisTemperature/precipitation deviations vs 30-day baselines for 15 conflict-prone zones.Severity classification: Feeds into CII scoring

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Geographic Convergence Detection

When 3+ distinct signal types occur in the same geographic area within a 24-hour window, World Monitor fires a convergence alert.

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How It Works

1

Spatial Binning

Events are binned into 1°×1° geographic cells (approximately 111km × 111km at the equator).
2

Type Diversity Scoring

Each unique signal type in a cell contributes 25 points:
  • 3 types = 75 points
  • 4 types = 100 points
  • 5+ types = 100 points (capped)
3

Event Count Bonus

Additional 2 points per event beyond the first of each type:
  • 1 protest + 1 military flight + 1 earthquake = 75 base
  • 3 protests + 2 flights + 1 earthquake = 75 + (2×2 protests) + (1×2 flights) = 85 total
4

Reverse Geocoding

The cell is reverse-geocoded to a human-readable name using:
  • Conflict zone database
  • Strategic waterway names
  • Hotspot locations
  • Country boundaries
5

Alert Emission

A convergence alert is displayed in the Intelligence Findings badge with:
  • Location name
  • Severity score (color-coded)
  • List of contributing signal types
  • Time window (24h)

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Example: Eastern Mediterranean Convergence

🟠 CONVERGENCE ALERT
Location: Eastern Mediterranean
Severity: 92/100

Signals detected in 1°×1° cell (35°N, 34°E):
- 4 protests (Cyprus, Lebanon border)
- 3 military flights (Israeli Air Force)
- 2 naval vessels (US Carrier Strike Group 2)
- 1 satellite fire (industrial complex)

Time window: Last 24 hours
Convergence alerts do not imply causation — they simply indicate that multiple event types are co-located. Further investigation is required to determine relationships.

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Regional Convergence Scoring

Convergence detection also operates at the country and region level:
  • Per-country clustering — All signals within a country’s borders are aggregated
  • Per-region clustering — Signals are grouped into 12 operational theaters (Iran-Iraq, Ukraine-Russia, Levant, Baltic, etc.)
CII Impact: Countries with active convergence alerts receive a boost to their instability score based on severity.

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Temporal Baseline Anomaly Detection

World Monitor uses Welford’s online algorithm to detect statistical anomalies in signal frequency:
1

Streaming Mean/Variance Calculation

For each signal type, World Monitor maintains a rolling 90-day window of event counts, computing streaming mean and variance without storing all historical data.
2

Contextual Grouping

Baselines are computed per:
  • Event type (protests, flights, conflicts)
  • Region (Middle East, Europe, Asia)
  • Weekday (Monday vs Sunday patterns differ)
  • Month (seasonal variation)
3

Z-Score Thresholds

Current event counts are compared to the baseline:
  • Z > 1.5 → Low anomaly (yellow)
  • Z > 2.0 → Medium anomaly (orange)
  • Z > 3.0 → High anomaly (red)
4

Example Anomaly

⚠️ ANOMALY DETECTED
Signal: Military flights
Region: Baltic Sea
Current: 24 flights (Thursday, January)
Baseline: 7.2 ± 2.1 flights
Z-score: 3.2 (HIGH)

Interpretation: Military flights are 3.2x normal for Thursday in January
Minimum samples: 10 historical data points are required before anomalies are reported, preventing false positives during the learning phase.

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Strategic Theater Posture Assessment

Nine operational theaters are continuously assessed for military posture escalation:
TheaterKey Triggers
Iran / Persian GulfCarrier groups, tanker activity, AWACS
Taiwan StraitPLAAF sorties, USN carrier presence
Baltic / KaliningradRussian Western Military District flights
Korean PeninsulaB-52/B-1 deployments, DPRK missile activity
Eastern MediterraneanMulti-national naval exercises
Horn of AfricaAnti-piracy patrols, drone activity
South China SeaFreedom of navigation operations
ArcticLong-range aviation patrols
Black SeaISR flights, naval movements

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Posture Levels

Each theater is assigned a posture level based on a composite of signals:
Green — Routine peacetime operations
  • Low aircraft count
  • No strike packaging (tankers + AWACS + fighters)
  • Minimal naval presence
  • Low CII scores for adjacent countries

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Focal Point Detection

When the same entity (country, location, organization, person) surfaces across multiple independent data sources, World Monitor identifies it as a focal point and escalates its prominence:

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Data Source Matching

News Mentions

Entity extraction from headlines (NER, keyword matching)

Military Activity

Aircraft callsigns, vessel names, base locations

Protest Feeds

Location names, actor entities

Market Signals

Prediction market contract titles

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Confidence Scoring

Matches are weighted by confidence:
  • Exact name match: 1.0
  • Alias match: 0.85–0.95
  • Keyword match: 0.7
Example: If “Iran” appears in:
  • 12 news headlines (news signal)
  • 3 military flights near Iranian airspace (military signal)
  • 2 protests in Tehran (protest signal)
  • 1 Polymarket contract about Iran nuclear talks (market signal)
World Monitor identifies Iran as a focal point with 4-source convergence and escalates it in the intelligence picture.
Focal points are displayed with a 🎯 icon in the Intelligence Findings badge and receive priority in the World Brief.

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Intelligence Alert Popups

By default, World Monitor accumulates signals silently in the Intelligence Findings badge. You can opt in to automatic popup notifications for high-priority alerts:
1

Click the Intelligence Findings badge

The dropdown shows all recent signals and alerts.
2

Toggle the popup switch

Enabled: Popups appear automatically for CRITICAL/HIGH alerts
Disabled (default): Badge pulses and counts, but no popups
3

Popup preference persists

Your choice is stored in localStorage and survives page reloads.
Popups can be disruptive during active monitoring. Only enable them if you need immediate alerts for high-severity events.

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