Overview
Combined bets (also called accumulators or parlays) multiply the risk and reward by requiring multiple matches to succeed. OddsEngine calculates the true combined probability using statistical principles, helping you understand the real likelihood of multi-match bet success.How Combined Probabilities Work
The Multiplication Principle
When combining independent bets, probabilities multiply rather than add:- Individual probabilities: 0.70, 0.65, 0.80
- Combined probability: 0.70 × 0.65 × 0.80 = 0.364 = 36.4%
Why Probabilities Multiply
Each match must succeed for the combined bet to win:- If Match 1 has a 30% chance of failing
- And Match 2 has a 35% chance of failing
- The probability that at least one fails is much higher than either individually
- Therefore, the probability that all succeed is much lower
Creating a Combined Bet Analysis
Start a new combined bet
In the OddsEngine application, click New Combined Bet from the main toolbar or press
Ctrl+N.Add matches to the combination
Click Add Match to open the match selector:
- Browse upcoming matches across tournaments
- Filter by date, tournament, or tour
- Select the player you predict will win
- Click Add to Combination
Review individual probabilities
Each added match shows:
- Selected player and opponent
- Individual win probability
- Confidence level
- Expected value indicator
Understanding the Combined Analysis Display
The combined bet analysis panel provides comprehensive information:Main Probability Metrics
Combined Success Probability
Combined Success Probability
The statistical likelihood that all matches in your combination will win. This is the product of all individual probabilities.
- Displayed as percentage (e.g., 36.4%)
- Updated in real-time as you add/remove matches
- Color-coded: Green (above 40%), Yellow (20-40%), Red (below 20%)
Combined Confidence Level
Combined Confidence Level
The lowest confidence level among all matches in the combination:
- If any match has Low confidence, combined confidence is Low
- Reflects data quality for the weakest prediction
- Helps identify which match introduces the most uncertainty
Risk Assessment
Risk Assessment
OddsEngine’s overall risk rating for the combined bet:
- Conservative: 40%+ combined probability, High confidence
- Moderate: 25-40% combined probability, Medium+ confidence
- Aggressive: 15-25% combined probability, any confidence
- High Risk: below 15% combined probability
Expected Value Indicator
Expected Value Indicator
Comparison of your combined probability vs typical bookmaker odds:
- Positive Value: Your probability is higher than odds suggest
- Fair Value: Probability matches expected odds
- Negative Value: Odds are worse than probability warrants
Per-Match Breakdown
The match list shows each selection with:- Match Details: Players, tournament, date
- Individual Probability: Single-match win likelihood
- Contribution to Risk: How much this match reduces combined probability
- Remove Button: Exclude from combination and recalculate
Risk Assessment Strategies
Evaluating Combined Bet Quality
Before placing a combined bet, consider:Number of Matches
| Matches | Typical Combined Probability | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| 2 matches | 40-50% | Moderate |
| 3 matches | 30-40% | Moderate-High |
| 4 matches | 20-30% | High |
| 5+ matches | Below 20% | Very High |
Each additional match significantly decreases your overall probability of success. Consider if the increased potential payout justifies the added risk.
Individual Probability Distribution
Scenario A: Three matches at 80%, 75%, 70%- Combined: 42%
- Consistent probabilities
- More predictable risk
- Combined: 35.1%
- One strong, two weaker matches
- Higher variance in outcomes
The “Weak Link” Principle
Your combined bet is only as strong as its weakest match:Identify the lowest probability match
Sort your matches by individual probability to find the weakest link.
Evaluate if it's worth including
Ask yourself:
- Does this match significantly reduce combined probability?
- Is the confidence level acceptable?
- Could I replace it with a stronger alternative?
Optimizing Combined Bets
Finding the Sweet Spot
Use OddsEngine’s optimization tools:- Probability Target: Set minimum acceptable combined probability (e.g., 30%)
- Match Limit: Set maximum number of matches (e.g., 4)
- Confidence Filter: Require all matches have Medium or High confidence
- Suggest Combinations: Click to see optimized bet suggestions
Match Independence
When combining matches that may not be fully independent:- OddsEngine shows a Dependency Warning
- Consider analyzing these matches separately
- Combined probability may be less accurate
Saving and Tracking Combined Bets
Save your combined bet analysis
Click Save Combined Bet to store:
- All selected matches and probabilities
- Combined probability calculation
- Risk assessment and notes
- Timestamp of analysis
Add stake and odds information (optional)
Enter:
- Stake Amount: How much you plan to bet
- Bookmaker Odds: Actual combined odds offered
- Expected Return: Calculated automatically
Comparing Combined Bet Options
To decide between multiple combined bet scenarios:Create multiple combinations
Build different versions:
- Conservative (3 high-probability matches)
- Balanced (4 medium-probability matches)
- Aggressive (5+ mixed-probability matches)
Use the comparison view
Navigate to Saved Combined Bets and select multiple entries. Click Compare to view side-by-side:
- Combined probabilities
- Risk assessments
- Expected values
- Potential returns
Practical Examples
Example 1: Conservative 2-Match Combination
Matches:- Novak Djokovic vs Qualifier: 85% probability
- Iga Swiatek vs Qualifier: 88% probability
- Combined Probability: 74.8%
- Risk Rating: Conservative
- Recommendation: Good value if odds exceed 1.34 (1 ÷ 0.748)
Example 2: Moderate 3-Match Combination
Matches:- Top seed vs #20 seed: 72% probability
- Top 10 player vs unseeded: 68% probability
- Defending champion vs first-timer: 70% probability
- Combined Probability: 34.3%
- Risk Rating: Moderate
- Recommendation: Acceptable risk if odds exceed 2.91 (1 ÷ 0.343)
Example 3: Aggressive 5-Match Combination
Matches:- Five favorites at 75%, 70%, 68%, 72%, 65% individual probabilities
- Combined Probability: 16.4%
- Risk Rating: High Risk
- Recommendation: Only bet if entertainment value justifies high risk
Best Practices
Start Small
Start Small
Begin with 2-3 match combinations until you understand how probabilities compound. Track your results to refine your strategy.
Respect the Math
Respect the Math
Don’t dismiss low combined probabilities. If OddsEngine calculates 25%, it means you’ll lose 3 out of 4 times on average.
Focus on Quality Over Quantity
Focus on Quality Over Quantity
Two high-quality 75% probability matches (56% combined) often outperform four mediocre 60% matches (13% combined).
Review Historical Performance
Review Historical Performance
Use Analysis History to see how accurate your previous combined bets were. Adjust your strategy based on results.
Next: Desktop Interface Guide
Learn how to navigate the PyQt application and access all features efficiently