The Core Insight
Time isn’t one thing. Depending on your use case, “consistency” and “causality” mean very different things:- Standard timeline: Causes must precede effects (FORWARD)
- Strategic planning: Reason backward from goals (PORTAL)
- Decision analysis: Explore counterfactual branches (BRANCHING)
- Mythic narratives: Future constrains past (CYCLICAL)
- Story arcs: Dramatic tension drives events (DIRECTORIAL)
The Five Modes
FORWARD
Strict forward causality—no anachronisms
PORTAL
Backward inference from fixed endpoints
BRANCHING
Counterfactual timelines from decision points
CYCLICAL
Prophecy, time loops, generational repetition
DIRECTORIAL
Five-act dramatic structure, narrative-driven
Comparison Table
| Mode | Causality Model | Best For | Example Template | Cost/Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORWARD | Strict forward | Standard timelines | board_meeting | $0.15 / 5min |
| PORTAL | Backward from target | Goal decomposition, critical paths | mars_mission_portal | $0.18 / 6min |
| BRANCHING | Counterfactual branches | ”What if” analysis | castaway_colony_branching | $0.35 / 12min |
| CYCLICAL | Future constrains past | Mythic loops, generational sagas | agent4_elk_migration | $0.25 / 10min |
| DIRECTORIAL | Dramatic tension drives | Story arcs, training data | hound_shadow_directorial | $0.20 / 8min |
FORWARD Mode
Overview
Standard causal DAG: causes precede effects, strict temporal ordering, no time travel.Validation Rules
Information Conservation
Information Conservation
Entity knowledge state ⊆ exposure history. No magical knowledge acquisition.
Temporal Ordering
Temporal Ordering
Event at T cannot reference information from T+1. Strict ancestry.
Network Flow
Network Flow
Information propagates along relationship edges. No telepathy.
Use Cases
- Corporate board meetings
- Historical simulations with known timeline
- Training data for causal reasoning models
- Baseline for comparing other modes
PORTAL Mode
Overview
Backward temporal reasoning: Given a known endpoint (“startup reaches $1B valuation in 2030”) and origin (“founders meet in 2024”), discover plausible paths connecting them.
Architecture
Score Coherence
Hybrid evaluation: LLM plausibility + historical precedent + causal necessity + entity capability
Configuration
Exploration Strategies
| Strategy | Pattern | Best For |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse chronological | 2040 → 2039 → 2038 → … → 2025 | Simple, predictable scenarios |
| Oscillating | 2040 → 2025 → 2039 → 2026 → 2038 → … | Complex interdependencies |
| Adaptive | System chooses based on complexity | General-purpose (default) |
Entity Inference (2026 Fix)
Portal mode uses LLM-based entity inference to populateentities_present for generated timepoints:
- Extract available entities from causal graph
- Prompt LLM to identify which entities should be present
- Fallback to regex-based name extraction
Pivot Point Detection
Multi-strategy detection:- Divergence-based
- Keyword-based
- Event-based
- Score-variance
Steps where >30% of paths have unique narratives
Advanced: Simulation-Based Judging
Optional enhancement: Run mini forward simulations from each candidate antecedent, use judge LLM to evaluate plausibility. 2-5x cost increase for significantly better paths.
Use Cases
- Strategic foresight: Map critical paths to business goals
- Decision testing: Identify necessary preconditions for outcomes
- Historical analysis: “What had to happen for X to occur?”
- Training data: Backward reasoning datasets for causal models
Output Structure
BRANCHING Mode
Overview
Create alternate timelines from intervention points. Each branch is internally consistent with proper causal propagation.
How It Works
Scenario Anchoring
BRANCHING mode forward steps are anchored to the scenario premise via:Scenario Anchor Block
Scenario Anchor Block
First 800 chars of
scenario_description injected in every prompt with “do NOT drift” instructionEntity Roster
Entity Roster
Rich role descriptions injected per step to prevent LLM from inventing new characters
Accumulated World State
Accumulated World State
Persistent store of
key_events_history, resource_states, monitoring for running contextExample: Castaway Colony
At Day 7, Commander Tanaka’s decision spawns 3 counterfactual branches:- Branch A: Fortify & Wait
- Branch B: Explore & Adapt
- Branch C: Repair & Signal
- Conservative resource consumption
- Focus on shelter and rationing
- Risk: slow rescue, low morale
- Entities: Commander, Engineer, Doctor (8 total)
Causal Consistency: Branch B can’t use cave shelter discovered in Branch A. Branch C can’t benefit from food sources found in Branch B’s exploration.
Configuration
Use Cases
- Decision testing: Compare outcomes of different strategies
- Risk analysis: Quantify downside of each option
- Policy simulation: Test interventions before implementation
- Training data: Counterfactual reasoning datasets
CYCLICAL Mode
Overview
Prophecy, time loops, generational repetition. Future events can constrain or cause past events within relaxed causality rules.The Core Innovation
Cycle type is discovered, not prescribed. The LLM interprets what “cyclical” means for the specific scenario:| Cycle Type | What Repeats | What Changes | Example |
|---|---|---|---|
| repeating | Events, structure | Details, awareness | Groundhog Day loop |
| spiral | Structural beats | Stakes, intensity | Dynasty saga |
| causal_loop | Causal structure | Nothing (bootstrap) | Predestination paradox |
| oscillating | Poles | Magnitude, timing | Boom/bust cycles |
| composite | LLM-directed | LLM-directed | Mixed patterns |
Prophecy System
Prophecies create narrative obligation: either fulfill (destiny) or subvert (tragedy).Prophecy Tracking
Prophecy Tracking
- prophecy_accuracy: 0.0-1.0 fulfillment rate
- fulfillment_confidence: LLM-rated confidence
- prophecy_source_cycle: Which cycle generated it
Prophecy Mechanisms
Prophecy Mechanisms
Vary by scenario: witches’ riddles (Macbeth), deja vu (time loop), analyst forecasts (economics), ancestral curses (dynasty)
Causal Loop System
For bootstrap paradoxes where events cause themselves:Fidelity Allocation
| Position | Fidelity | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Cycle boundaries | DIALOG | Where patterns become visible |
| Prophecy moments | TRAINED | High-stakes narrative pivots |
| Mid-cycle events | SCENE | Repeating “texture” |
| Variation points | DIALOG | Where this cycle diverges |
Use Cases
- Time loop narratives with protagonist evolution
- Generational sagas with echoing patterns
- Economic/ecological cycles with feedback
- Mythic/religious narratives with destiny
- Training data for non-linear temporal reasoning
DIRECTORIAL Mode
Overview
Causality serves narrative, not vice versa. Events happen because the story needs them. Dramatic structure is a first-class constraint.
Arc Engine
Five-act structure with emergent pacing:| Act | Tension | Temporal Density | Fidelity |
|---|---|---|---|
| SETUP | 0.2-0.4 | Sparse (establishing) | SCENE/TENSOR |
| RISING | 0.4-0.7 | Increasing | DIALOG |
| CLIMAX | 0.8-1.0 | Dense (every moment matters) | TRAINED |
| FALLING | 0.5-0.3 | Decreasing | DIALOG |
| RESOLUTION | 0.1-0.2 | Sparse (denouement) | SCENE |
Camera System
The “invisible director” controls:- POV Rotation
- Framing Vocabulary
- Parallel Storylines
- Main character for climax
- Ensemble for setup
- Antagonist for dramatic irony
Dramatic Irony Detection
When audience knows something characters don’t:Fidelity as Dramatic Investment
Resources concentrate where drama concentrates. A 20-timepoint tragedy might allocate 40% of token budget to 3 climax timepoints.Configuration
Use Cases
- Classical dramatic structures (tragedy, comedy, heist, courtroom)
- Character-driven vs plot-driven emphasis
- Multiple timeline interleaving
- Training data for story-aware models
Mode Selection Guide
Need strict causality?
Use FORWARD for corporate, historical, or baseline simulations
Working backward from a goal?
Use PORTAL for strategic planning and critical path analysis
Testing decisions?
Use BRANCHING for counterfactual analysis and risk assessment
Modeling repetition?
Use CYCLICAL for loops, prophecy, or generational patterns
Creating narrative?
Use DIRECTORIAL for story arcs and dramatic training data
Next Steps
Fidelity Management
Learn how resolution levels reduce costs 95%
Knowledge Provenance
Deep dive into exposure events
All 19 Mechanisms
Complete technical reference

