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What is Simple Kalshi Bot?

The Simple Kalshi Bot is an automated trading system that operates on Kalshi’s prediction markets, specifically targeting Bitcoin (BTC) 15-minute price movement markets (KXBTC15M).

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How It Works

The bot continuously monitors markets and executes trades based on multiple strategies:
1

Market Monitoring

The bot polls Kalshi’s API every few seconds to get the next expiring open market
2

Signal Generation

Multiple strategies generate trading signals:
  • PREVIOUS: Follows the result of the last settled market
  • MOMENTUM: Analyzes BTC price direction over time windows
  • CONSENSUS: Only trades when PREVIOUS and MOMENTUM agree
  • ARBITRAGE: Exploits pricing inefficiencies
3

Trade Execution

When conditions are met, the bot places buy orders and logs them
4

Settlement Tracking

The bot checks pending trades for settlement and calculates profit/loss

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Trading Strategies

The bot implements seven distinct strategies in paper trading mode:

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1. PREVIOUS

Buys the same side as the previous market’s result. 
# From bot.py:383-412
if pending_previous and ("PREVIOUS", ticker) not in traded_keys:
    prev_market = get_market(pending_previous)
    settled = get_settled_side(prev_market)
    
    if settled:
        signals[ticker]["PREVIOUS"] = settled
        price = yes_ask if settled == "yes" else no_ask
        contracts = STAKE_USD / price if price > 0 else 0

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2. MOMENTUM

Analyzes BTC price direction over the last 60 seconds. 
# From bot.py:416-462
cutoff = now - timedelta(seconds=MOMENTUM_WINDOW_SECONDS)
old_prices = [(t, p) for t, p in btc_prices if t <= cutoff]

if old_prices:
    _, old_price = old_prices[-1]
    _, current_price = btc_prices[-1]
    
    if current_price > old_price:
        side = "yes"  # Price rising, bet UP
    else:
        side = "no"   # Price falling, bet DOWN

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3. CONSENSUS

The CONSENSUS strategy only trades when both PREVIOUS and MOMENTUM signals agree, providing higher confidence signals.
This strategy includes sophisticated risk management:
  • Price ceiling enforcement
  • Dynamic position sizing based on bankroll
  • Daily and weekly loss caps
  • Rolling performance monitoring

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4. MOMENTUM_15

Similar to MOMENTUM but uses a 15-minute (900 second) window instead of 60 seconds.

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5. PREVIOUS_2 & CONSENSUS_2

Wait for favorable pricing (≤ $0.45) before executing their respective strategies.

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6. ARBITRAGE

Buys immediately, then attempts to hedge the opposite side when profitable.

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Risk Management

The bot includes multiple risk controls to prevent excessive losses:

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Bankroll Management

# From bot.py:24-31
INITIAL_BANKROLL_USD = float(os.getenv("INITIAL_BANKROLL_USD", "500"))
CONSENSUS_RISK_PCT = float(os.getenv("CONSENSUS_RISK_PCT", "0.01"))
CONSENSUS_MAX_RISK_PCT = float(os.getenv("CONSENSUS_MAX_RISK_PCT", "0.02"))

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Loss Caps

# From bot.py:30-31
CONSENSUS_DAILY_LOSS_CAP_R = float(os.getenv("CONSENSUS_DAILY_LOSS_CAP_R", "3"))
CONSENSUS_WEEKLY_LOSS_CAP_R = float(os.getenv("CONSENSUS_WEEKLY_LOSS_CAP_R", "8"))

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Rolling Performance Monitoring

The bot tracks a rolling window of trades and calculates:
  • Win rate
  • Break-even win rate (based on average win/loss amounts)
  • Automatically pauses trading when performance drops below break-even
# From bot.py:188-218
def rolling_consensus_metrics(trades):
    settled = settled_consensus(trades)
    window = settled[-CONSENSUS_ROLLING_WINDOW:]
    profits = [float(t.get("profit_usd", 0)) for t in window]
    
    wins = [p for p in profits if p > 0]
    losses = [p for p in profits if p <= 0]
    
    if wins and losses:
        avg_win = sum(wins) / len(wins)
        avg_loss = abs(sum(losses) / len(losses))
        break_even = avg_loss / (avg_win + avg_loss)

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Data Persistence

All trades are logged to a CSV file with detailed information: 
# From bot.py:97-105
fieldnames = [
    "time", "strategy", "previous_ticker", "previous_result", 
    "buy_ticker", "buy_side", "stake_usd", "price_usd", 
    "contracts", "fee_usd", "gross_profit_usd",
    "outcome", "payout_usd", "profit_usd"
]
The default CSV location is data/mock_trades.csv for paper trading.

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Market Data Sources

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Kalshi API

Fetches market information, prices, and settlement data: 
# From bot.py:11
API_BASE = "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2"

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Coinbase API

Retrieves real-time BTC prices for momentum calculations: 
# From bot.py:34-41
def get_btc_price():
    resp = requests.get(
        "https://api.coinbase.com/v2/prices/BTC-USD/spot",
        timeout=10
    )
    return float(resp.json()["data"]["amount"])

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Next Steps

Paper Trading

Learn how to run the bot in simulation mode

Real Trading

Deploy the bot with real Kalshi API credentials

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