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Welcome to Simple Kalshi Bot, a sophisticated paper trading system designed to test and analyze multiple trading strategies on Kalshi’s Bitcoin 15-minute (KXBTC15M) prediction markets.

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What is Simple Kalshi Bot?

Simple Kalshi Bot is an automated trading system that simulates trades across seven different strategies without risking real capital. All trades are “mock” trades - meaning they’re tracked and analyzed as if they were real, but no actual money is spent. This makes it perfect for:
  • Testing trading strategies in real market conditions
  • Learning how prediction markets work
  • Analyzing strategy performance with zero risk
  • Developing and backtesting algorithmic trading ideas

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How It Works

The bot continuously monitors Kalshi’s KXBTC15M markets (Bitcoin price prediction markets that settle every 15 minutes) and executes paper trades based on various strategies:

PREVIOUS

Follows the trend by buying the same side as the previous market’s settled result

MOMENTUM

Buys based on Bitcoin spot price direction over the last 60 seconds from Coinbase

CONSENSUS

Only trades when PREVIOUS and MOMENTUM both agree on the same direction

MOMENTUM_15

Uses a longer 15-minute lookback window for BTC price momentum

PREVIOUS_2

Waits for PREVIOUS signal at favorable prices ($0.45 or below)

CONSENSUS_2

Waits for CONSENSUS signal at favorable prices ($0.45 or below)

ARBITRAGE

Attempts to lock in risk-free profits by hedging both sides when prices allow

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Key Features

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Real-Time Market Data

The bot polls Kalshi’s public API every 5 seconds to get live market prices and settlement data, giving you real-time strategy performance.

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Multiple Strategies Running Simultaneously

All seven strategies run in parallel on the same market, allowing you to compare their performance side-by-side.

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Comprehensive CSV Tracking

Every trade is logged with timestamps, entry prices, outcomes, and profit/loss calculations. This makes it easy to analyze performance in spreadsheet tools.

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Risk Management Controls

The CONSENSUS strategies include sophisticated risk management:
  • Position sizing based on bankroll percentage
  • Daily and weekly loss caps
  • Rolling win-rate analysis
  • Maximum price filters

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No Real Trading

All trades are simulated. The bot never places real orders or requires API credentials for trading. It only reads public market data.

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Market Overview

The bot focuses on KXBTC15M markets on Kalshi:
  • Market Type: Binary prediction market (YES/NO)
  • Question: Will Bitcoin price be higher or lower than a strike price at expiration?
  • Frequency: New markets every 15 minutes
  • Settlement: Automatic based on Coinbase BTC-USD price
  • Pricing: Markets trade between 0.01and0.01 and 0.99 per contract
  • Payout: $1.00 per winning contract
The bot uses Kalshi’s demo API by default, which provides realistic market data without requiring an account. You can switch to production API data in the configuration.

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Sample Output

When running, the bot displays real-time status: 
[14:32:15] KXBTC15M-24MAR05-T1445 (847s) | yes=$0.52 no=$0.51 | BTC=94,234 | 
P:$-2.50 M:$+1.75 C:$+3.20 M15:$-0.80 P2:$+0.45 C2:$+1.10 A:$+0.25 CB:$503.20

  -> [CONSENSUS] Both agree yes (UP) -> BUY 12 ($6.24) @ $0.52
  ** [PREVIOUS] SETTLED KXBTC15M-24MAR05-T1430: WIN $+4.20

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Performance Tracking

All trades are saved to data/mock_trades.csv with complete details:
ColumnDescription
timeISO timestamp of the trade
strategyWhich strategy made the trade
buy_tickerMarket ticker being traded
buy_sideyes or no
stake_usdAmount staked
price_usdEntry price per contract
contractsNumber of contracts purchased
outcomeWIN, LOSS, or empty if pending
profit_usdNet profit or loss
This is an educational and research tool. Past performance in paper trading does not guarantee future results in real trading. Always test thoroughly before risking real capital.

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Next Steps

Quickstart

Get up and running in 5 minutes

Installation

Detailed setup instructions

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