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The PREVIOUS strategy is a simple trend-following approach that assumes recent market outcomes will continue. When a new KXBTC15M market opens, it places a bet on the same side (YES or NO) that won in the previous market.

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Strategy Logic

The strategy operates on a straightforward hypothesis: if Bitcoin’s price moved up (or down) in the last 15-minute window, it’s likely to continue in the same direction for the next window.

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Signal Generation

1

Detect Market Rollover

When the bot detects a new market has opened, it marks the previous market ticker for signal generation.
2

Wait for Settlement

The strategy waits for the previous market to settle and determine whether YES or NO won.
3

Copy the Result

Once settled, the strategy places the same bet on the new market (if previous was YES, bet YES; if NO, bet NO).

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Implementation

Here’s the core implementation from bot.py: 
# bot.py:382-414
if pending_previous and ("PREVIOUS", ticker) not in traded_keys:
    prev_market = get_market(pending_previous)
    settled = get_settled_side(prev_market)
    
    if settled:
        # Record signal
        signals[ticker]["PREVIOUS"] = settled
        
        price = yes_ask if settled == "yes" else no_ask
        contracts = STAKE_USD / price if price > 0 else 0
        
        trade = {
            "time": now.isoformat(),
            "strategy": "PREVIOUS",
            "previous_ticker": pending_previous,
            "previous_result": settled,
            "buy_ticker": ticker,
            "buy_side": settled,
            "stake_usd": STAKE_USD,
            "price_usd": round(price, 4),
            "contracts": round(contracts, 4),
            "outcome": "",
            "payout_usd": "",
            "profit_usd": "",
        }
        trades.append(trade)
        save_trades(trades)
        traded_keys.add(("PREVIOUS", ticker))
        
        print(f"  -> [PREVIOUS] BUY {settled} ${STAKE_USD} @ ${price:.4f}")
    else:
        print(f"  -> [PREVIOUS] Waiting for {pending_previous} to settle...")

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Settlement Detection

The bot determines which side won by checking the market result: 
# bot.py:76-82
def get_settled_side(market):
    """Return 'yes' or 'no' if market is settled, else None."""
    result = market.get("result")
    if result in ("yes", "no"):
        return result
    return None

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Configuration

ParameterDefaultDescription
STAKE_USD5.0Fixed amount to bet on each trade
POLL_SECONDS5How often to check for new markets
The PREVIOUS strategy uses fixed position sizing - it always stakes exactly $5.00 regardless of price or market conditions.

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Risk Characteristics

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Advantages

Simplicity: Easy to understand and debug Low Latency: Executes immediately when previous market settles Trend Capture: Performs well during sustained directional moves

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Limitations

Mean Reversion: Loses money when trends reverse No Price Filter: Will pay any price for the signal No Risk Management: Fixed stake regardless of bankroll or drawdowns

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When to Use

This strategy works best in:
  • Trending markets: When Bitcoin price shows sustained directional movement
  • High momentum environments: During periods of strong buying or selling pressure
  • Testing and baseline: As a benchmark to compare more sophisticated strategies against
Avoid using PREVIOUS as your only strategy. It has no awareness of price inefficiencies or bankroll management, which can lead to significant drawdowns during choppy or mean-reverting markets.

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PREVIOUS_2 Variant

The PREVIOUS_2 variant adds a price filter: 
# bot.py:619-643
if ("PREVIOUS_2", ticker) not in traded_keys:
    prev_signal = signals[ticker].get("PREVIOUS")
    if prev_signal:
        price = yes_ask if prev_signal == "yes" else no_ask
        if 0 < price <= DEAL_MAX_PRICE:  # Only buy if price is good
            contracts = STAKE_USD / price
            trade = {
                "time": now.isoformat(),
                "strategy": "PREVIOUS_2",
                "previous_ticker": pending_previous or "",
                "previous_result": prev_signal,
                "buy_ticker": ticker,
                "buy_side": prev_signal,
                "stake_usd": STAKE_USD,
                "price_usd": round(price, 4),
                "contracts": round(contracts, 4),
                "outcome": "",
                "payout_usd": "",
                "profit_usd": "",
            }
            trades.append(trade)
            save_trades(trades)
            traded_keys.add(("PREVIOUS_2", ticker))
            print(f"  -> [PREVIOUS_2] BUY {prev_signal} ${STAKE_USD} @ ${price:.4f}")
PREVIOUS_2 waits for the PREVIOUS signal side to reach $0.45 or less before entering. This filters for better risk/reward opportunities but may miss trades when markets are trending strongly.

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Performance Monitoring

The bot outputs real-time P&L for PREVIOUS strategy: 
[12:34:56] KXBTC15M-24MAR05-T1245 (180s) | yes=$0.52 no=$0.48 | BTC=95,234 | 
           P:$+2.50 M:$-1.20 C:$+3.75 ...
Where:
  • P:$+2.50 = PREVIOUS strategy cumulative profit/loss
  • Strategy positions are tracked in data/mock_trades.csv

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Example Trade Flow

1

Market KXBTC15M-A settles at YES

Bitcoin price increased during the 15-minute window. PREVIOUS records this signal.
2

New market KXBTC15M-B opens

Bot detects market rollover and activates PREVIOUS strategy.
3

Execute trade

PREVIOUS buys YES side on KXBTC15M-B at current ask price ($0.53).
  • Stake: $5.00
  • Contracts: 9.43 (= 5.00/5.00 / 0.53)
4

Market KXBTC15M-B settles at YES

Trade wins, payout = 9.43 contracts = $9.43
  • Profit: $4.43

MOMENTUM Strategy

Uses actual BTC price movement instead of market results

CONSENSUS Strategy

Combines PREVIOUS with MOMENTUM for higher conviction

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