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Kuest uses UMA Protocol’s optimistic oracle system to resolve prediction markets in a decentralized, secure, and transparent manner. This ensures that market outcomes are determined fairly without relying on centralized authorities.

What is UMA?

UMA (Universal Market Access) is a decentralized oracle protocol that brings real-world data onto the blockchain:
  • Optimistic Oracle: Assumes data is correct unless disputed
  • Economic guarantees: Secured by financial incentives
  • Decentralized verification: No single point of failure
  • Transparent process: All actions recorded on-chain

Why UMA for Prediction Markets?

UMA is ideal for prediction markets because:
  • Can resolve any human-readable question
  • Handles subjective outcomes
  • Economically secure against manipulation
  • Fully decentralized and trustless
  • Transparent dispute resolution

How UMA Oracles Work

The UMA oracle system uses an optimistic approach:

Optimistic Resolution

Key Concept: Answers are assumed correct unless someone disputes them. This optimistic approach:
  • Enables fast resolution in most cases
  • Reduces costs by avoiding votes when unnecessary
  • Maintains security through economic incentives
  • Allows anyone to propose outcomes

Economic Security

The system is secured by bonds:
  • Proposers stake a bond when submitting outcomes
  • Disputers stake a bond when challenging outcomes
  • Incorrect parties lose their bonds
  • Correct parties earn the other party’s bond

Market Resolution Process

When a market event concludes, resolution follows these phases:
1

Outcome Proposed

Anyone can propose the market outcome by staking a bond. The proposal specifies the winning outcome (Yes, No, or Invalid).
2

Dispute Window

A time period where anyone can dispute the proposed outcome by staking their own bond. Typically 2 hours.
3

No Dispute Path

If no one disputes during the window, the proposed outcome becomes final and the market settles.
4

Dispute Path

If disputed, the question goes to UMA tokenholders for a decentralized vote to determine the correct outcome.
5

Final Settlement

The verified outcome is recorded on-chain and winning shares can be redeemed for $1.00 each.

Resolution Timeline

Markets display a resolution timeline showing current status:

Timeline Phases

Outcome Proposed
  • ✅ Initial outcome submitted
  • Proposer’s bond locked
  • Timestamp recorded
Dispute Window
  • ⏳ Active countdown timer
  • Dispute button available
  • Shows time remaining
Final Review (if disputed)
  • 🏛️ UMA tokenholder vote in progress
  • Typically 48-72 hours
  • Voting results determine outcome
Final Outcome
  • ✅ Resolution confirmed
  • Market settled
  • Shares redeemable
You can view the full resolution timeline on each market’s resolution tab after the event concludes.

Proposing Outcomes

Anyone can propose market outcomes:

How to Propose

1

Wait for Event to Conclude

The real-world event must be completed and verifiable.
2

Click Propose Resolution

Available on the market page once the event concludes.
3

Submit Outcome

Select the correct outcome (Yes, No, or Invalid) based on market rules.
4

Stake Bond

Lock a bond (typically $1,500 in UMA tokens) to propose.
5

Wait for Dispute Window

If no one disputes your proposal within the window, you receive your bond back plus a proposer reward.

Proposer Requirements

  • Must have sufficient UMA tokens for the bond
  • Must submit correct outcome per market rules
  • Must wait for event to fully conclude
  • Risk losing bond if disputed and incorrect

Proposer Rewards

Correct proposals earn:
  • Full bond returned
  • Portion of market fees
  • Reputation as reliable proposer

Dispute Process

If a proposed outcome appears incorrect, anyone can dispute:

How to Dispute

1

Review Proposal

Check the proposed outcome against market rules and real-world facts.
2

Click Dispute

Available during the dispute window (typically 2 hours after proposal).
3

Stake Dispute Bond

Lock a bond equal to the proposer’s bond to challenge the outcome.
4

DVM Vote

The dispute goes to UMA’s Data Verification Mechanism (DVM) for tokenholder vote.
5

Await Resolution

UMA tokenholders vote on the correct outcome over 48-72 hours.

When to Dispute

Dispute if:
  • Proposed outcome contradicts market rules
  • Real-world result clearly differs from proposal
  • Outcome was proposed too early
  • Market should be marked invalid
Only dispute if you’re confident the proposal is incorrect. If the DVM sides with the proposer, you’ll lose your dispute bond.

Dispute Outcomes

If Dispute Wins:
  • Disputer receives their bond back
  • Disputer receives proposer’s bond
  • Correct outcome is set
  • Market settles with correct result
If Dispute Loses:
  • Proposer receives their bond back
  • Proposer receives disputer’s bond
  • Original proposal stands
  • Market settles as proposed

Data Verification Mechanism (DVM)

When disputes occur, UMA’s DVM resolves them:

How the DVM Works

Tokenholder Voting:
  • UMA tokenholders vote on the correct outcome
  • Weighted by UMA tokens held
  • 48-72 hour voting period
  • Majority consensus determines result
Voting Incentives:
  • Voters who vote with the majority earn rewards
  • Voters who vote against the majority risk losing tokens
  • Encourages honest voting
Information Sources:
  • Market rules (on-chain)
  • Resolution source URL
  • Public verifiable data
  • Common knowledge

DVM Principles

The DVM operates on:
  • Truth over profit: Vote for factual outcome
  • Human readable: Questions must be understandable
  • Publicly verifiable: Answers must be confirmable
  • Economic security: Cost to corrupt exceeds potential profit

Resolution Sources

Each market specifies resolution criteria:

Resolution URL

Markets may include a resolution source:
  • Authoritative source: Official website or data feed
  • Public verification: Anyone can check the outcome
  • No interpretation: Should be unambiguous
Examples:
  • election.gov for election results
  • espn.com for sports scores
  • coinmarketcap.com for crypto prices
  • officialawards.com for award winners

Market Rules

Every market has detailed rules specifying:
  • Exactly what outcome qualifies as Yes
  • What outcome qualifies as No
  • When to mark market Invalid
  • Edge cases and scenarios
  • Tie-breaking procedures
Always read market rules carefully before trading. The rules determine how the oracle will resolve the market.

Invalid Outcomes

Markets can be resolved as Invalid when:

Invalid Criteria

  • Ambiguous result: No clear winner per rules
  • Rule violation: Market fundamentally broken
  • Event cancelled: Event didn’t occur as specified
  • No valid outcome: Neither Yes nor No is correct

Invalid Resolution

When a market is Invalid:
  • Both Yes and No holders can redeem
  • Each share redeems for $0.50
  • Traders get partial refunds
  • No party “wins” or “loses”
Invalid outcomes protect traders from unfair losses when markets have fundamental issues.

Oracle Security

UMA oracles are secured through multiple mechanisms:

Economic Security

Cost to Attack:
  • Must post large bonds
  • Must control majority of UMA tokens for DVM
  • Cost exceeds any profit from manipulation
  • Previous attacks left attackers bankrupt
Skin in the Game:
  • Proposers risk their bonds
  • Disputers risk their bonds
  • Voters risk their UMA tokens
  • Everyone incentivized to be honest

Decentralization

  • No single party controls outcomes
  • Anyone can propose or dispute
  • Distributed tokenholder voting
  • Open-source smart contracts
  • Transparent on-chain process

Transparency

All actions are public and verifiable:
  • Proposals viewable on-chain
  • Disputes recorded in blockchain
  • Vote results are public
  • Full audit trail
  • View on blockchain explorer

Viewing Resolution Details

Track market resolution progress:

On Market Page

Resolution Tab:
  • View resolution timeline
  • See current phase
  • Active countdown timers
  • Propose or dispute buttons
  • Link to UMA oracle dashboard
Rules Section:
  • Resolver address
  • Resolution source URL
  • Market rules and criteria
  • Link to propose

UMA Oracle Dashboard

View full details on UMA’s website:
  • Complete proposal history
  • Dispute status
  • Vote results
  • Bond amounts
  • Transaction hashes
Click “View details” on any resolved market to see the UMA oracle page.

Best Practices

For Traders

  • Read market rules carefully
  • Understand resolution criteria
  • Check resolution source reliability
  • Wait for final settlement before celebrating
  • Monitor dispute windows on your positions

For Proposers

  • Only propose when outcome is clear
  • Verify against resolution source
  • Follow market rules exactly
  • Don’t propose prematurely
  • Be prepared for disputes

For Disputers

  • Only dispute clear errors
  • Have evidence ready
  • Understand the DVM process
  • Consider bond requirements
  • Be confident in your case

Common Questions

How long does resolution take?

Typically:
  • No dispute: 2 hours after proposal
  • With dispute: 48-72 hours for DVM vote
  • Edge cases: May take longer if appeals occur

What if no one proposes an outcome?

Anyone can propose at any time after the event. Markets without proposals simply remain unresolved until someone proposes.

Can I change my proposal?

No. Once submitted, proposals cannot be edited. Others can dispute and submit the correct outcome if yours is wrong.

What happens to my shares during resolution?

Your shares remain in your wallet throughout resolution. You can sell them if there’s liquidity, but cannot redeem until settlement is final.

Markets

Learn about market types

Trading

How to trade on markets

Additional Information

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